Highlights & Insights Archive: November - December 2009

Ashura Demonstrations Met with Violence (12/27/09) Iranian security forces opened fire on demonstrators in Tehran today. Four have been reportedly killed as of 1300 US EST. Among the dead is the nephew of Mir Hosein Mousavi (see unconfirmed video). More clashes and deaths are being reported in cities across the country. Follow developments via Current News Links.

Grand Ayatollah Montazeri Dies (12/20/09) Iran's leading dissident cleric passed away this weekend. Grand Ayatollah Hosein Ali Montazeri was one of shi'a Islam's two most eminent clerics alongside Grand Ayatollah Sistani of Iraq. Montazeri helped establish the Islamic Republic and was Ruhollah Khomeini's designated successor until a personal and political estrangement between the two in the late 1980s. By then, Montazeri had become a leading critic of the political and human rights abuses of Khomeini's Islamic Republic. He would later go on to support Reformist President Mohammed Khatami and apologize to the Iranian people for his role in creating a repressive system of government. Despite two decades of official disrepute in Iran, Montazeri has remained a force. He has provided religious legitimacy and inspiration to the Green Movement and its leading figures Mir Hosein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi. His death is certain to have a galvanizing effect in the short term, especially as mourning coincides with the religious observances of Muharram and Ashura. His passing could be a significant loss to the Green Movement in the longer term, however. Provided the regime can weather the current storm, it will no longer have to contend with competing statements and fatwas issued by a cleric of higher rank than Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei. In short, the Green Movement has lost the real-time backing of one of the top religious leaders in the shi'a world. It will now have to invoke his memory and his precedents in the fight against a regime that claims to rightfully rule in the name of Islam. Read coverage of the life and death of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri under Current News Links.

A Busy Week in Congress; IRPSA Passes House (12/15/09) It has been a busy week in the US Congress as far as Iran issues are concerned. As expected, the House of Representatives overwhelmingly passed the Iran Refined Petroleum Sanctions Act (IRPSA) on Tuesday. The act levies sanctions on sellers, shippers, and insurers of refined petroleum to Iran. Passage by the House does not mean that IRPSA has become law. A similar bill would also have to pass the Senate. President Obama would then have to sign IRPSA into law. According to Reuters, the US State Department likes features of the bill and would seek the cooperation of Congress to ensure that any final version is consistent with Obama administration policy.

While IRPSA is likely to get the headlines, two other important pieces of Iran legislation were introduced this week. The 'Stand With the Iranian People Act' calls for US sanctions policy to target individuals within the Iranian government, particularly members of the IRGC. It posits targeting the bank accounts and assets of regime leaders and sanctioning foreign entities that provide censorship or surveillance technology to the regime. It specifically calls for efforts to ensure that sanctions not harm the Iranian people, which is a widespread concern among critics of IRPSA. It also calls for increased "people-to-people exchanges" and efforts to focus international attention on human rights abuses in Iran. Finally, a complementary bill called the 'Iranian Digital Empowerment Act' has been introduced to redress barriers to fulfillment of the Senate's summer authorization of $20 million for software to circumvent censorship in Iran. The bill states that current sanctions law has the "unintended effect of stifling Iranians' access to the Internet."  It "encourages the development and provision of technologies and services to the Iranian people" that help them fight ramped-up regime efforts to monitor and stop dissident communications. It is intended to override existing sanctions provisions that prohibit the export to Iran of software and related services. It remains unknown whether and when either of these bills will come to a vote in the House.

Refer to Current News Links for additional coverage of and reaction to these bills.

The Perils of Petroleum Sanctions (12/10/09) Congressman Howard Berman, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee and author of the Iran Refined Petroleum Sanctions Act, announced last week his plan to pass sanctions legislation by the end of December; he appears to easily have the support needed in both the House and Senate. Though the Obama administration and allies such as France and Britain have recently escalated threats of sanctions, congressional action that is not coordinated with the White House risks a convoluted American strategy and a sub-optimal outcome to the dispute with Iran. An article yesterday by the National Security Network argues that Congress and the White House must remain on the same page. An older study by the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) argues that petroleum sanctions are unlikely to help the US achieve its goals. The study is a pretty thorough review of what IRPSA is meant to do and how Iran may respond. AEI's website IranTracker.org is worth a look beyond the study on petrol sanctions; readers can, for example, view and track the status of congressional legislation relevant to Iran and see lists of sanctioned entities. US-Iran-Relations.com will continue to track movement toward sanctions in both the US Congress and at the United Nations in the weeks and months to come.

New Protests Rock Iran, More Likely on the Way as Ashura Approaches (12/8/09) Thousands of protesters gathered across Iran yesterday, proving that the opposition Green Movement is alive and well. December 7th is a day for government-sanctioned anti-American protests; it is meant to commemorate the death of three Iranian students at the hands of the Shah's security services in 1953. Yet just on as November 4th, Iranians turned such an occasion on its head and instead challenged their own government. Perhaps most interesting about these most recent protests is the extent to which they show emerging secular-national sentiment against the Islamic system. Iranians have stopped specifically protesting the June election and instead are targeting the governing system. One popular chant heard over the summer was repeated yesterday: 'Independence, Freedom, Iranian Republic.' This is provocative insofar as it is a play on the chant 'Independence, Freedom, Islamic Republic' heard thirty years ago. Another provocative gesture seen yesterday was the display of the Iranian flag without the Islamic Republic's coat of arms - the stylized tulip which reads 'Allah' in Arabic script.

Secular-national undertones do not mean that the Green Movement is irreligious, however. In fact, protest is likely to continue later this month in a very religious context. The Islamic month of Muharram begins in mid-December. Ashura - the most significant day of the year for Shi'a Muslims - falls on December 27th. Shi'a Muslims stage solemn parades on Ashura to mark the death of The Prophet's grandson Hussein at Karbala. It is the seminal commemoration of Shi'a suffering, injustice, and martyrdom and is often characterized by acts of self-flagellation. Rest assured, the Green Movement will use Ashura to highlight and protest the irony and hypocrisy of a Shi'a Muslim government that claims to act in Imam Hussein's stead presiding over the repression of the Iranian Shi'a people. While many of us in the West recover from Christmas festivities on December 26th and 27th, it will be worth watching religious observances of another type unfold in Iran.

New Editorial Analysis: A Helsinki Process for Iran? (12/2/09) Diplomacy with Iran is not going well. Tehran has de facto rejected the once-promising idea of sending its uranium abroad for peaceful processing. The IAEA censured Iran last week; Tehran responded by announcing a provocative and outlandish plan to build ten new nuclear enrichment facilities. The French foreign minister has described Iran’s behavior as “childish.” Dire and resigned warnings of sanctions are on the rise and a debate may be emerging in Iran about withdrawal from the NPT. Meanwhile, the Iranian regime’s gratuitous injustice toward political opponents – both real and perceived – detracts each day from the moral palatability of negotiations. It’s time to throw in the towel on diplomacy, resort to good old sanctions, and call it a day – right?

Iran Plans Ten New Nuclear Enrichment Sites (11/30/09) Just a few days after the IAEA Board of Governors passed a resolution imploring Iran to cooperate on the nuclear issue, President Ahmadinejad's cabinet voted to move forward on a plan for ten new industrial-scale uranium enrichment sites in Iran. Work on five sites will supposedly begin soon; a panel is to explore options for an additional five. All are ostensibly to be built into mountains for protection against attack. It is highly unlikely that this plan will come to fruition - and if it does, it will take years. One nuclear expert calls the idea "preposterous." The gesture's true significance, then, is political. Iran is making a statement of defiance. It does not bode well for talks as currently framed. Only truly creative diplomacy can stop what increasingly appears to be another inexorable march toward sub-optimal sanctions policies and even a military confrontation. Read the news reports on the Current News Links page.

El Baradei Sees 'Dead End,' IAEA Censures Iran (11/29/09) The IAEA Board of Governors voted to censure Iran on Friday. The resolution falls short of an official non-compliance charge, but is a major political statement that could set the stage for a new round of UN sanctions. According to the LA Times, the measure calls on Iran to halt all uranium enrichment, resolve lingering questions about its past nuclear activities, open its nuclear facilities to more thorough inspections, and provide credible assurances that it is not operating additional secret sites. It is the first such IAEA action in four years, and importantly includes the support of Russia and China. The resolution passed one day after outgoing IAEA chief Mohammad El-Baradei struck a chord of uncharacteristically deep pessimism and frustration, saying that the agency's investigation of Iran was at a "dead end" given Iran's lack of cooperation. Iran has, of course, condemned the resolution. An Iranian government spokesman warned that it will further complicate talks, and Iran's Majlis, or parliament, has called for reduced cooperation with the IAEA. Read more about these developments and other news and analysis from a busy holiday week under Current News Links.

Riveting News Day Kicks off Holiday Week (11/24/09) Today's Current News Links provides perhaps the most compelling daily compilation of news and analysis in the brief history of this website. Robin Wright reports that Iranian opposition figures seek US support and targeted sanctions against the IRGC. Noted Israeli historian Benny Morris writes a chilling column that all but forecasts an Israeli-Iranian war next spring and summer. Al Arabiya reports that Iran may be willing to send its uranium abroad after all - provided it receives sufficient assurances of its return. Brazil's President receives criticism for his show of support for Iran and Mahmud Ahmadinejad. Iran's Fars News Agency details ongoing air defense exercises. And then there are today's top stories, summarized below, which detail the intimidation and propaganda wars underway in Iran and Maziar Bahari's unfathomable ordeal as a prisoner of the regime. There is, in short, plenty for visitors to read and digest over the next few days as US-Iran-Relations.com takes a short break from updating Current News Links to enjoy the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States. Current News Links will next be updated on Sunday, November 29. Stay tuned in the coming weeks, as well, for a new original analysis of how the US should respond to Iran's apparent rejection of the IAEA proposal to send its uranium abroad.

Iran Waging Quiet War on Own People (11/24/09) The dramatic street beatings may be over, but the Iranian regime's war on large segments of its own people is only getting started. The regime is waging a "soft war" against Western and liberal influences in the media and educational institutions. The New York Times reports today in a must-read article that Iran plans to establish 6,000 Basij military centers in elementary schools across Iran. This program of indoctrination clearly aims to counteract unfavorable demographic and social trends, which show a young population with increasingly liberal political and social views. The IRGC, which recently acquired a dominant stake in Iran's telecommunications sector and which already controls leading news sources such as the Fars News Agency, plans to launch a new media outlet called "Atlas" to help win what it sees as a media-based propaganda war with the West. Iran also appears to be stepping up its use of the death penalty to intimidate political opponents. A fifth person connected to this summer's post-election protests was recently sentenced to death, and executions in general are on the rise.

Maziar Bahari Speaks (11/24/09) Newsweek correspondent Maziar Bahari is home safely after a nearly-four month ordeal as a political prisoner in Iran's notorious Evin Prison. Bahari was arrested on charges of espionage soon after the outbreak of this summer's post-election tumult. He withstood unimaginable psychological and physical torture, and tells his remarkable story here. It is another must-read that sheds further light on the often-bemusing thinking and paranoia of the Iranian regime.

Iran Appears to Finally Nix Uranium Deal (11/19/09) The proposed deal for Iran to send most of its uranium abroad appears to be all but officially dead. Iranian Foreign Minister Mottaki told the media yesterday that "we will definitely not send our 3.5 percent-enriched uranium out of the country." Iran may still be open to a simultaneous swap arrangement or a simple purchase to meet its needs for medical isotopes, but such ideas are highly unlikely to resonate in the West, as they would not serve the essential purpose of decreasing the amount of enriched uranium available in Iran for a nuclear weapon. The US is awaiting official word of Iran's rejection before proceeding with potentially-coercive steps. Various news outlets suggest, however, that Western diplomats are deeply pessimistic. Sanctions proceedings could begin shortly after the New Year if talks fail to yield alternative solutions. The Wall Street Journal reports that the US is talking to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates about ways to use oil sales to pressure Iran; even if Russia and China do not get on-board with tougher measures, the US may pursue other avenues to use economic leverage against Iran. See Current News Links for coverage from several different media outlets.

IAEA Releases Report on Qom Facility (11/17/09) The IAEA has released a report on its inspection of the new Fordo nuclear facility near Qom. The report expresses alarm that Iran continues to withhold information about Fordo and is hiding additional sites. International inspectors found Fordo to be in an advanced stage of development, but Iran has not yet introduced centrifuges at the site. Iran suggests that the facility will begin enriching uranium in 2011. Inspectors were unable to interview the director or builders of the site. Iran insists that it has cooperated fully and that the suspicions and concerns raised by the report are - surprise! - the result of Zionist lies and conspiracies. See Current News Links for reporting from several major news outlets; the article in the New York Times is most strongly recommended for its thoroughness.

Is Russia Taking a Hard Line on Iran? (11/16/09) It is conventional wisdom that Russia is a stumbling block to serious measures against Iran and its nuclear program. The conventional wisdom is often worth questioning, however. Moscow has proceeded cautiously in recent months, but language and actions suggest that Russia may be moving toward a harder line on Iran. President Medvedev repeated in a meeting this weekend with President Obama that harsher sanctions may be necessary. More impressive than its language, however, are Russia's actions - or lack of action, more accurately. Moscow continues to withhold delivery to Iran of an advanced air defense system known as the S-300 surface-to-air missile system. Iranian officials and media have expressed a great deal of angst and impatience lately over Moscow's failure to fulfill the contract; delivery of the system has so far been delayed by six months, and the Russians appear to be in no hurry to follow through with the sale. The S-300 is very significant in that its deployment around Iran's nuclear sites would greatly increase the risks involved in any attempted military strike. Iran suggests that it may be able to reverse-engineer the S-300, but this is highly unlikely; Iran's defense industry lacks the sophistication to produce anything like the S-300 in the near future. Meanwhile, Russia has announced that it will be unable to complete the Bushehr nuclear power plant by the end of 2009. Russia's energy minister says that the delay is for purely technical reasons, but the BBC, which has correspondents in Tehran, calls the delay "clearly political." The delay pushes completion of Bushehr past the unofficial Western deadline of December for diplomacy over Iran's nuclear program to bear fruit. Withholding fulfillment of the S-300 and Bushehr contracts may end up being crucial bargaining chips that ultimately drag Tehran into a nuclear deal with the P5+1, even if kicking and screaming. Though deemed a dubious partner in dealing with Iran, Moscow may be deliberately retaining critical leverage over Tehran that ultimately helps the West achieve its objectives vis-a-vis Iran's nuclear program. Read more about these issues in Current News Links.

New Resources Added (11/13/09) US-IRAN-RELATIONS.COM has added some truly excellent resources to its Special Links section. Check out the new Iran Gateway of the American Foreign Policy Project as well as a new blog by Flynt and Hillary Mann Leverett. Resources relevant to Iran's nuclear program and nuclear affairs in general have also been added; of special note is Iranwatch.org, which is part of the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control.

An Incredible Week (11/8/09) November is only a week old, but it has already added greatly to America's challenge of crafting a coherent and successful Iran policy. November 4th marked the 30th anniversary of the US Embassy seizure in Tehran, which led to a 444-day hostage crisis. The Islamic regime has long used this anniversary to hold rallies castigating the Great Satan, but things took a different turn this year. Yes, there were the usual anti-American, anti-Israel, and anti-Britain gatherings. Yet the Green Movement took advantage of the occasion to hold the first demonstrations against the Khamenei-Ahmadinejad government in several weeks. Thousands took to the streets and were subject to tear gas, batons, and arrests. Protesters also gathered outside the Russian Embassy in Tehran to protest Russia's support for Ahmadinejad during this summer's electoral crisis. In a remarkable gesture, Grand Ayatollah Montazeri said that the US Embassy seizure had been a mistake due to its effect on the American people and its contribution to the countries' estrangement. This is as close as the US has perhaps ever come to receiving an apology from an elite revolutionary cleric. Montazeri was a vanguard figure of the Revolution and was once Khomeini's designated successor. He now sits outside of government as a vocal regime critic and is perhaps the most widely-revered Ayatollah in Iran, at least among more liberally-inclined Iranians.

The most significant development from the November 4th protests, however, is the evidence of growing frustration among reformist Iranians with President Obama. Among the chants heard was "Obama! Either with us or with them!" Pro-opposition Iranians are growing concerned that the Obama administration is willing to turn a blind eye to Iran's internal affairs in exchange for a nuclear deal. Such developments are certain to give regime-change advocates renewed confidence, but that is probably reading too much into what these Iranian reformists seek. They do not necessarily want the US to pursue a concerted regime change policy. Nobel Laureate Shirin Ebadi likely speaks for many when she calls for the US to expand the scope of talks beyond the nuclear issue to include human rights and democracy. The Green Movement does not want to be used as an excuse for an overly-aggressive American policy (remember that Ebadi and Mousavi oppose sanctions of any kind), but it does not want to be sold down the river, either. It appears that the US may have to consider a careful recalibration of its "involvement" in Iran's internal affairs - a perennially sensitive  topic with the government in Tehran.

Meanwhile, the hour glass for nuclear diplomacy may be approaching empty, and things do not look good. The head of the Majlis (Iranian parliament) committee on national security and foreign policy dismissed this week any deal to ship uranium abroad. Yet Iran's ambassador to the IAEA said that Tehran is still crafting its official response, which may involve a compromise proposal rather than an outright rejection. The Iranian government is clearly not of one mind or one voice on the issue; this never bodes well for a positive outcome. According to ElBaradei, the core issue is trust; many Iranian leaders simply do not believe that they will ever see their uranium again if they ship it abroad. The IAEA is considering a compromise in which Iran could send its uranium to a friendly and ostensibly more trustworthy country such as Turkey. The US may not even be amenable to an Iranian or IAEA counter-proposal, though. Secretary of State Clinton said this week that the US would not be willing to re-write the currently-proposed deal.

As the uranium transfer deal stalls, bad news has emerged regarding Iran's military pursuits. Britain's The Guardian reported this week that the IAEA is investigating Iran's apparent testing of a highly-sophisticated nuclear warhead design. Iran's surprising acquisition of the technology for a two-point implosion device is the latest piece of incriminating information to be leaked from the IAEA's dossier "Possible Military Dimensions of Iran's Nuclear Program." Bloomberg News reports that Iran has boosted domestic mining of uranium, an activity outside the current purview of international inspectors. Finally, Israel intercepted a shipment of Iranian arms this week believed to be intended for Hezbollah. The cache, weighing over 100 tons, includes grenades, rockets, mortars, and missiles. Iran and Hezbollah deny any illegal arms shipment.

Finally, IAEA chief ElBaradei has said that there is "nothing to be worried about" at the nuclear site near Qom. Inspectors have visited the recently-revealed site, which ElBaradei describes as a "hole in a mountain" intended for use as a bunker; a full IAEA report is due in mid-November. ElBaradei's assessment is peculiar if not disingenuous given that the Iranians themselves say that the site is intended for low-level uranium enrichment.

For more on all of these developing stories, visit Current News Links.